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High-Level Meeting on Beyond Populism: Economic Challenges and Opportunities in Democratic Transitions

2 May 2013
Rabat

Excellency, Mr Abdallah Baha, Minister of State,
Excellency, Mr. Mohamed Najib Boulif, Minister Delegate Attached to the Prime Minister for General Affairs and Good Governance,

Excellencies,

Ladies and gentlemen,

It is with great pleasure that I welcome you all, on behalf of my colleagues, the Executive Secretaries of the United Nations Regional Commissions. I would first like to express my deep gratitude to His Majesty the King of Morocco for his honorable message and to the Prime Minister, Mr Abdelilah Benkirane, for hosting this meeting in Morocco. Special thanks go to the Ministry of General Affairs and Good Governance, our partner in this event, and to the International Development Research Centre (Canada) for having funded this project.

This meeting is the first regional event held by ESCWA since Morocco joined the Commission in the summer of 2012. I seize this opportunity to express our delight at having Morocco as part of our family. This rising country represents a rich mix of the Arab and African identities. Having reconciled tradition and modernity, Morocco has opened to the world of today, taking pride in its own culture and building on the very best of its authentic heritage.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Uprisings for freedom, dignity and justice raised high hopes among Arab citizens. They emerged from resignation and silence, reviving the aspiration for renaissance lost when complacency and desperation were forced upon them. They began again to believe in their potential and to rediscover the longing of their spirit for dignity and freedom. Once again, Arabs believed that chronic injustice will end and that prosperity shall prevail.

Two years after the eruption of the Arab uprisings, many have grown more pessimistic. The prosperity they hoped for remains elusive, poverty has not decreased and unemployment is higher and more acute than ever.

While some Arab leaders, as in Morocco for example, listened to the voice of their people and embarked on promising reforms, others turned a deaf ear, forcing their countries into a vicious cycle of violence, hostility and destruction.

And now, the international media warn of a “harsh winter” that would rob the Arab Spring of its spirit. They point to violations of the rights of women, the suppression of individual freedoms and the oppression of minorities. Some voices call for a foreign intervention that would protect those vulnerable and marginalized groups. Some, abandoning their usual sobriety, only see in the South Mediterranean region an Islamic crescent, renewing fears they claimed to have overcome decades ago.

Did the uprisings fail to deliver?
Are the disappointment of Arabs and the fears of others justified?

Economic hardships are now more severe in the countries of the Arab uprisings. Poverty and dissatisfaction brought a large number of citizens back to the squares and streets. They were joined by others who were disappointed by the political transition. The squares of freedoms, which were once a space for hope, became squares of conflict that undermined security and eroded social peace. Now, countries are trapped in a vicious circle: instability discourages investors and tourists, weakens growth and exacerbates deficits in budget and the balance of payments; this leads to inflation, increasing unemployment and poverty; which in turn leads to a larger number of citizens returning to the streets in protest, eroding stability and security even further.

Economic slowdowns are not atypical during revolutions: they are a recurrent feature of the first phases of transitions. Revolutions erupt against failed systems where injustice and exclusion prevail, and their success often requires that corrupt State structures are dismantled and then rebuilt on the basis of justice, freedom and popular participation. Other experiences have shown it: between destruction and reconstruction there will always be hard times.

The biggest danger to Arab revolutions is not purely economic, it is rather a vicious campaign led by counter-revolutionary forces. Their strategy is to sow dissent among the forces of the revolution and distract them with secondary challenges that would prevent them from building the democratic foundations. By doing this, they hope to prolong the transition period and increase the hardships and frustration, so that people turn against the revolution and the old regime, though in a new face, becomes a popular demand.

This strategy converged with another, led by external forces which considered Arab revolutions a threat to their own interests. Those forces sought to exacerbate internal conflicts in some Arab countries. Some were pleased to see violence and hostility in other countries, because it discouraged their own people from seeking freedom and democracy. Others are striving to transform the struggle against occupation, dependence and backwardness into an internal conflict between ethnic and religious groups, weakening all parties and their ability to free themselves from dependence on external powers.

It is delusional to think that counter-revolutionary forces would welcome a democratic regime that deprives them of the benefits they have unlawfully enjoyed for decades. Recent history provides evidence. In 1953, Mohammad Mossadegh, the Iranian Prime Minister, was overthrown by the intelligence agency of a powerful State in collaboration with internal forces.

Parts of that episode were somewhat similar to some scenes of the Arab Spring. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was forced to reappoint Mossadegh in 1952, under the pressure of intensive popular movements. The intelligence agency besieged Mossadegh economically to deprive him of popular support. At the same time, they deployed media and all available political means to distort his reputation. Provoked demonstrations against him became daily events. Frustration and popular discontent were heightened, leading to more demonstrations and counter-demonstrations during which agents instigated violence and vandalism. Violence escalated, chaos prevailed, the army interfered and Mossadegh fell.

Alas, Mossadegh was not succeeded by a democratic transition that met the expectations of the people who had sincerely taken to the streets. Despotism returned with an uglier face and greater suppression.

Ladies and gentlemen,

We meet today to support the reforms and transition to democracy in Arab countries. This meeting is the second in a series of dialogues organized to address the political, economic, social and cultural challenges of building democracy and good governance institutions in the Arab region. Those components are strongly interrelated. Reforms in one area will not succeed unless they are complemented by reforms in the others. The democratic transition will not be complete unless it is supported by a strong and inclusive economic system in which all may participate and benefit equally. Societies will not be able to provide the economy with productive and innovative labour forces unless they rise above complacency and no longer accept mediocrity. Those values were instilled during despotic times. Economies will not prosper unless they are supported by democratic regimes that are free from corruption and dependence.

Those aspirations are highly ambitious. The Arab revolutions succeeded in transforming desirable yet unattainable dreams into ones that are achievable and within sight. The path to a new era is certainly fraught with difficulty, but Arabs do not have many choices. The journey of transition has already begun: either it will reach the desired destination or it will be derailed, blowing off peoples and countries. Our meeting today shall, I hope, support the first ending and refute the second. There is no alternative for the Arab region but to cast off oppression and the violation of rights that were imposed by external occupation or despotic regimes. The only way forward is to build a future where freedom and dignity prevail, under just regimes that derive their power from the will of the people and do not exclude anyone on the basis of religion, ethnicity or gender.

Only then will the revolution deliver on its promise, and there will be no justification for anyone to fear the freedom of Arabs. Until then, we rightfully claim a dream and an aspiration for a better future.

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